Consumer sentiment weakens as fiscal crisis looms

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in December, hitting a four-month low as a looming fiscal crisis sapped what had been a growing sense of optimism about the economy.

The report heightened concerns that a failure by Washington to avert planned tax hikes and spending cuts could lead households to close their wallets, threatening an economic recovery that has been steady albeit lackluster.

Other data on Thursday highlighted the positive momentum building in the economy, with the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits falling to a nearly 4-1/2 year low and new home sales hitting their highest level since April 2010.

But gauges of business sentiment have weakened recently on worries Washington will go forward with plans to slash the federal deficit by about $600 billion in 2013.

Now consumers also appear apprehensive, a sign worries about the so-called "fiscal cliff" could bite into household spending.

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 65.1 from 71.5 in November.

A sub-index measuring how consumers feel about their present situation rose to its highest level in more than four years, but a gauge of sentiment about the future plunged to its lowest point in more than a year.

"Consumers are increasingly preoccupied with the potential damage the fiscal cliff will cause to the economy and to their wallets if a deal is not reached soon," economists at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note.

Separately, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 350,000, the Labor Department said.

"This recent improvement in the claims data is potentially a favorable signal for the labor market," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

After spiking in the wake of a mammoth storm that ravaged the East Coast in late October, new claims have dropped to their lowest levels since the early days of the 2007-09 recession. The four-week moving average fell 11,250 last week to 356,750, the lowest since March 2008.

The claims data has no direct relation to the government's monthly employment report, but it suggests the surge in layoffs since the recession has at least run its course.

Still, many economists think hiring may remain sluggish even as the pace of layoffs ease.

Companies in recent months have been adding to their payrolls at a lackluster pace, and analysts expect the employment report due on January 4 will show 143,000 jobs were created in December, down from 146,000 in November.

"A significant improvement in labor market conditions ahead of any resolution to the fiscal cliff is unlikely," said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays in New York.

U.S. stocks opened flat but turned lower as the Senate Democratic leader derided Republicans for the lack of progress in budget talks and warned that a fall off the "cliff" appeared inevitable. Investors sought safety by buying U.S. Treasury debt and the dollar, which rose against the euro.

Following a truncated holiday break in Hawaii, U.S. President Barack Obama returned to Washington to restart talks to avoid the brunt of the fiscal cliff's impact, which would likely put the U.S. economy back into recession if not lessened.

HOLIDAY CAVEAT

The signs of progress in the claims data also included a caveat, at least for the latest week.

Obama declared Monday a holiday for federal workers and many state offices followed suit and were unable to provide complete data for last week's jobless claims. Data for 19 states was estimated, although 14 of those states submitted their own estimates, which tend to be fairly accurate.

The holiday season can make it more difficult to adjust the claims data for normal seasonal fluctuations, another reason to be cautious about the report for last week.

Separately, the Commerce Department said new U.S. single-family home sales rose in November to a 377,000-unit annual rate, while the median sales price jumped 14.9 percent from the same month in 2011, the latest signs the U.S. housing recovery is gaining some steam.

In a fourth report, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank said its index of factory activity in the U.S. Midwest increased in November to 93.7 from a revised 92.2 in October.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Richard Leong and Ryan Vlastelica in New York; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

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Public Release of Ozal Autopsy Urged in Turkey

ISTANBUL (Reuters) — The full report of an autopsy on the body of Turgut Ozal, who led Turkey out of military rule in the 1980s, should be released for public scrutiny, his son said on Wednesday.

Mr. Ozal’s body was exhumed in October after years of rumors that he had been killed by militants of the “deep state” — a shadowy group within the Turkish establishment. He had angered some with efforts to end a Kurdish insurgency and survived an assassination attempt in 1988. He was prime minister from 1983 to 1989, then the Parliament elected him president.

The body of Mr. Ozal, who died of what officials said was heart failure in 1993 at the age of 65 while in office, was exhumed on the orders of prosecutors investigating suspicions of foul play.

A summary of the forensic report, released this month, said the exact cause of death could not be determined because no autopsy was conducted immediately after Mr. Ozal died. He was overweight and had kept up a grueling schedule even after undergoing a triple heart bypass operation in the United States in 1987.

Ahmet Ozal, one of the former president’s sons — who, like other members of his family, believes that his father was poisoned — wants the full scientific autopsy report published.

The findings “should not be disclosed only to the Council of Forensic Medicine, but also to universities so specialists and professors can also evaluate the results,” Ahmet Ozal, a former lawmaker, told reporters.

He said he would also file legal cases against people involved in taking his father to a hospital on the day of his death once a full report by the state inspection committee was released.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: December 26, 2012

An earlier version of this article misstated Turgut Ozal’s leadership role in Turkey when he led the country out of military rule in the 1980s. He was prime minister, not president.

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Kate Winslet Marries in Secret

By Mike Fleeman

12/26/2012 at 09:10 PM EST

Talk about a Titanic secret.

Kate Winslet has tied the knot with Richard Branson's nephew, Ned Rocknroll, her rep tells PEOPLE.

"I can confirm that Kate Winslet married Ned Rock'nRoll in NY earlier this month in a private ceremony attended by her two children and a very few friends and family," the rep says. "The couple had been engaged since the summer."

According to British media reports, Leonardo DiCaprio gave away the bride in a ceremony so secret that the bride and groom's parents didn't know about it.

The Oscar-, Golden Globe- and Emmy-winning actress, 37, has been dating Rocknroll, 34, (his legal name) since fall of 2011.

In August 2011, she and Rocknroll were on the same Caribbean island owned by Branson when a fire broke out and Winslet rescued Branson's 90-year-old mother.

Winslet previously was married to Sam Mendes and Jim Threapleton.

• Reporting by JULIE JORDAN

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Asian shares up with eye on "fiscal cliff"; yen slips more

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Thursday amid caution about the chances of U.S. lawmakers striking a deal to avoid a fiscal crunch by December 31, while the yen hit a 21-month low against the dollar on the prospect of drastic monetary easing and massive state spending.

In a sign that there may be a way to break the deadlock in Congress, Republican House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner urged the Democrat-controlled Senate to act to pull back from the cliff, and offered to at least consider any bill the upper chamber produced.

U.S. President Barack Obama will try to revive budget crisis talks which stalled last week when he returns to Washington on Thursday after cutting short his Christmas holiday in Hawaii.

Economists warn that the "fiscal cliff" of higher taxes and spending cuts worth $600 billion in the world's largest economy could hurl it into recession, dragging other economies with it.

Such concerns pushed up a gauge of investor anxiety, the CBOE Volatility Index <.vix>, to 19.48, its highest close since late July, also underpinning the dollar as the fiscal impasse continues to sap investor appetite for risky assets, raising the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

"The consequences of (U.S. lawmakers) not coming to some arrangement are very, very harsh and I think it's all politicking at the moment and we'll see some resolution," said Winston Sammut, investment director, Maxim Asset Management.

There were some signs of economic improvement in the Asian region, with data showing profits earned by China's industrial companies jumped 22.8 percent in November from a year earlier, accelerating from October's 20.5 percent.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.3 percent, with Australian shares <.axjo> adding 0.3 percent and Hong Kong shares <.hsi> adding 0.4 percent, though Shanghai <.ssec> and Seoul <.ks11> shares were down.

U.S. stocks fell slightly in thin volume, and European markets were shut for the Christmas holiday.

London copper rose 1.7 percent to a one-week high of $7,932 a tonne on the positive data from the world's top copper buyer China.

U.S. crude futures were down 0.2 percent at $90.80 a barrel, after rising overnight to the highest in more than nine weeks on hopes that renewed talks will prevent a U.S. fiscal crisis. Brent crude eased 0.2 percent to $110.83.

BOLD IN JAPAN

Against the yen, the dollar at 85.84 yen reached its highest since September 2010, with investors accelerating their yen sales after new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said his government will pursue bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy to encourage private investment.

Abe has pledged to make his top priority beating deflation and taming the strong yen, which are dragging down the world's third biggest economy.

The yen is on track for a drop of over 10 percent this year, its steepest since 2005. The yen also fell to a 16-month low against the euro at 113.58 yen on EBS on Wednesday.

The weaker yen, a boon for Japanese exporters, lifted the benchmark Nikkei stock average <.n225> up 1.4 percent to its highest since March 2011. It is on track to log its best yearly gain since 2005. <.t/>

"People are putting on some positions based on what we saw after the cabinet appointment and LDP policy decision," a dealer at a foreign brokerage said, referring to the ruling party.

The yen is expected to stay under pressure given the new Japanese government's clear resolve to prevent it rising.

Japan's top government spokesman said on Thursday that recent yen declines were a reversal of past "one-sided" gains in the Japanese currency.

"I'm still bullish on the dollar/yen quite a bit," said a trader for a U.S. bank in Singapore. "In this thin market, I think anything can happen. But definitely I wouldn't go against the trend. The trend is quite clear at this point in time."

New Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Thursday the prime minister has ordered him to compile a stimulus package without adhering to the previous government's 44 trillion yen (519 billion) cap on new bond issuance.

The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield added 1 basis point to 0.795 percent, its highest since October 18. The lead 10-year JGB futures eased to 143.54, just one tick above its session low, which was its lowest level since September 18.

(Additional reporting by Dominic Lau, Miranda Maxwell in Melbourne and Masayuki Kitano in Singapore; Editing by Daniel Magnowski)

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The TV Watch: Indian Soap Operas, Ruled by Mothers-in-Law

Kuni Takahashi for The New York Times

The Bhats, of Mumbai, watch soap operas together.

MUMBAI, India — Mothers-in-law are not a joke on Indian TV.

They are the law.

Soap operas dominate prime time here and the mother-in-law reigns in almost all of them. However plucky the heroine or serpentine the plot, every love story seems to circle back to marriage and the many relatives who come with the words “I do.”

The extended family is still the bedrock of Indian society, where modernization meets its match. Soap operas here are outlandish — some so stylized and wildly melodramatic they verge on camp. But they are also oddly prosaic; expressions of duty, deference and parental obligation that inform everyday lives.

Television isn’t an insurrectionist force in India. It’s a relatively young medium struggling to adapt to a vast viewing audience that respects tradition and suspects change. Like many an Indian bride, television here occasionally tests the boundaries but mostly finds its way by following the rules and not making too many waves.

The rules can seem confounding to outsiders: India is a country where female infanticide can be a soap opera plot point in prime time but scenes of casual dating are taboo. In this realm it is the mother-in-law who is the metronome of Indian family values, issuing orders, giving advice and setting the rhythm of acceptable change.

Speed-clicking the remote after 8 p.m. is like watching a PowerPoint display of passion in hot pink, glimmering tears and the occasional stinging slap across the face. Sweet, noble Sandhya dreams of entering the Civil Service on “The Light and the Lamp Are We,” one of the top-rated shows in India, and her handsome husband, a humble candy shop owner, is all for it. But there’s an obstacle that drives the narrative: Her mother-in-law is adamantly opposed.

The basic plot of “Child Bride” is evident from its title, and this soap about an under-age wife is also a top-rated show — under-age marriage is still prevalent enough to wedge its way into the family hour. More shocking, perhaps, is that in more recent episodes the in-laws accept the young heroine as their own and — brace for it — encourage her to leave her husband (he’s a philanderer) and find a better match.

That may be a fantasy, but matriarchal interference (call it guidance) is marriage Indian-style. When Indian women discuss the need to “adjust” to matrimony, they don’t just mean adapting to a new husband. They mean moving in with his parents, grandparents and siblings, a custom that is still the norm, even in prosperous families. In a country with 1.2 billion people, about 148 million households have television and that amounts to as many as 600 million viewers. In the slums of Mumbai even sections without running water sport satellite dishes on corrugated roofs. Almost everywhere, Indians gather in front of the family television and the mother-in-law controls the remote.

“Women like to see their favorite characters express their own feelings, so the mother-in-law identifies with the mother-in-law, the daughter-in-law with the daughter-in-law,” is how Ekta Kapoor explains soap opera transference. Ms. Kapoor, a 37-year-old television and film producer who currently has five shows on the air, became queen of the Indian soap world with her breakthrough series, “The Mother-in-Law Was Once a Daughter-in-Law, Too,”one of the all-time hits of Indian television that ran from 2000 to 2008.

Male children are favored in Indian society, and wives join the husband’s family at the low end of the pecking order, often relegated to kitchen drudge work while the mother-in-law rules over the grandchildren. “We live with our parents until we are married, then we live with someone else’s parents,” Ms. Kapoor said. “There is pressure to give everything to the son. It’s a source of conflict in so many homes.” (Ms. Kapoor, the daughter of well-known actors, is single and owns her own house but lives with her parents in their home anyway.)

Alessandra Stanley, chief television critic of The New York Times, has gone abroad to watch foreign TV this year.

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How ‘Doctor Who’ Kept Its Big Christmas Secret Off Twitter

Tonight Doctor Who fans get to gorge on their annual Christmas fix — a full-length special episode the series has produced every year for the holiday since 2005. This time, however, there’s some extra spice in the form of a new regular cast member: Jenna-Louise Coleman debuts in “The Snowmen” as the Doctor’s next companion.

Except it’s not her debut. Coleman actually made her first appearance in the series premiere back in September. Actually, make that surprise appearance. In preseason interviews, Doctor Who‘s producers had explicitly told fans they’d have to wait until Christmas before they’d see Coleman in the show.

[More from Mashable: Top 10 Twitter Pics of the Week]

But there she was, fighting Daleks and making soufflés, way ahead of schedule. This was unheard of for the series, which has seen major plotlines leak online — usually months before broadcast — several times over the past few years. The show had gotten to the point where it would simply announce any major developments far in advance in order to get ahead of the spoiler hunters.

Yet somehow the show’s producers kept Coleman’s early debut a secret — a feat made even more challenging since there were several preview screenings of the episode, each attended by hundreds of rabid fans, all carrying smartphones. How did Doctor Who keep every single one of them from tweeting about it?

[More from Mashable: How Music Ruled Twitter in 2012]

“I asked. That’s it,” says Steven Moffat, Doctor Who‘s current showrunner. “I don’t think anyone thought it would work. I certainly didn’t. At the London premiere, I just stood up and said, ‘Please, nobody, no fan, no newspaper — nobody at all — mention that she’s in it. And to my surprise it worked.”

Moffat says the idea of misleading the audience about when Coleman would debut “grew” as he was writing the current series. But it almost didn’t happen since others at the BBC wanted to get ahead of the news and announce her presence at the first preview screening. Moffat, however, was convinced (rightly, it turns out) that he could persuade the fans and journalists in attendance to guard the secret.

“They tried to talk me out of it at the last minute,” he says. “And it did involve a lot of charming journalists and saying ‘Please don’t…’ It was the polite embargo, really. We couldn’t really embargo it. And I was always clear, ‘There is no punishment here. You don’t get blacklisted — I’m just asking, and the show will be better if you keep this secret.’ And they did.”

But did really not a single person on fire off a quick tweet about Coleman being on the show? It appears so. Although Twitter doesn’t offer a way to search tweets within a specific date range, searching the Twitter domain on Google during the month of August (the series premiered on Sept. 1) for her name reveals just regular promotion for the show.

“You can get a long way just by asking politely,” says Moffat. “Who knew that’s all you had to do? What’s remarkable about it is not one single person broke. And I really didn’t think that was going to work, because if any website had broken it — if any forum had broken it — the press would have just leapt in. They would have felt no further need for restraint. But they didn’t.”

Now Coleman makes her “proper” debut in the Christmas special, but is she playing the same character as before (who was — spoiler alert — abruptly killed off), or someone different? Moffat’s already told fans not to expect any great explanations under the tree. What’s going on with Coleman’s character (characters?) won’t be fully revealed until the series returns in the New Year.

But who knows? Maybe that’s another mislead.

Will you be watching Doctor Who tonight? Does the show still surprise you? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Doctor Who Returns

Matt Smith (The Doctor) and Karen Gillan (Amy Pond) attended a special screening of the premiere of Doctor Who Series 7 at New York City’s Ziegfeld Theater. The episode, “Asylum of the Daleks,” debuts on BBC America on Sept. 1.

Click here to view this gallery.

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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Giada De Laurentiis: My Daughter Still Believes in Santa

Courtesy Giada De Laurentiis

The tree’s done. The stockings are hung. Giada De Laurentiis and her family — husband Todd Thompson and their daughter Jade Marie — are officially ready to host the holidays.

“Christmas Eve is the big tradition in an Italian family. It’s when my entire family gets together,” the newest face of Clairol tells PEOPLE exclusively.

“This year, for the first time, it will be held at my house … so Jade and I and my husband are very excited.”

On the menu for the family festivities is “a big fish dinner,” one that no doubt Jade will help her mother to prepare. After all, adds the celebrity chef, she is the unofficial taste tester.

“My daughter loves to cook. We have a lot of laughs together. I spend a lot of time in the kitchen and she loves hanging out with me,” De Laurentiis, 42, shares. “The reason she loves it so much is because she can stick her finger in everything and taste it as she goes along.”

Once the big dinner is done with, and the evening starts to wind down, De Laurentiis and Jade will start to prepare for the night’s biggest guest to arrive: Santa Claus. At 4½-years-old, her little girl is still a strong believer in the magic of it all, notes her proud mama.

“She leaves him little treats — for the reindeer and for him too — and she’s very much a believer in Santa,” De Laurentiis says. “I hope she’ll be a believer for a long time, I think it’s really fun for kids to be able to do that.”

Recently, the pair sat down to write out Jade’s wish list, but after much pleading on Jade’s part over the past few weeks, it’s no surprise as to what she hopes to find under the tree this year.

“The one thing she keeps asking me for over and over again is clip-on earrings. She must have seen them on somebody else, but she has asked me for clip-on earrings for the past month,” De Laurentiis notes. “I am on a mission to find clip-on earrings for her because I don’t think she’ll ever forgive me if I don’t.”

But based on her newly transformed play space, the “girly girl’s” specific accessory request should come as no surprise.

“She’s opened up her own little salon in her playroom. She gives free makeovers, she curls people’s hair and gives them little manicures as well,” De Laurentiis says. “I’ve always been a girly girl my whole life — maybe she will, maybe she won’t — but it’s a lot of fun to play with her right now.”

– Anya Leon with reporting by Kate Hogan

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Yen falls as Japan forms new government, supporting Nikkei

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen fell to a 20-month low against the dollar on Wednesday, buoying the benchmark Nikkei stock average, as Japan ushers in a new prime minister eager to pursue drastic stimulus steps to drive the country's economy out of deflation.

Asian shares and other assets were capped in thin holiday trade, with investors focusing on the fate of U.S. negotiations to avert a budget crunch looming at the end of the year.

Markets in Singapore <.ftsti>, Malaysia <.klse>, Indonesia <.jkse>, the Philippines <.psi> and South Korea <.ks11> were closed on Tuesday for the Christmas holiday, reopening on Wednesday.

Hong Kong and Australia remain closed on Wednesday. Europe also will not trade but, U.S. markets reopen later in the day.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> inched up 0.1 percent, after rising 0.3 percent the previous day on the back of a surge in Shanghai shares <.ssec> to five-month highs and a jump in Taiwan shares <.twii>.

Shinzo Abe, whose party won a landslide victory in an election earlier this month, will be sworn in as Japan's premier on Wednesday, when he is also expected to appoint his cabinet. He is prescribing a mix of aggressive monetary policy easing and big fiscal spending to beat deflation and rein in the strong yen.

He has kept up pressure on the Bank of Japan to deliver much stronger monetary easing policies and called for a 2 percent inflation target to beat deep-rooted deflation, pushing the yen to a 20-month low of 85.38 yen on trading platform EBS on Wednesday. Traders eyed the dollar's 2011 high of 85.53 yen as the next target.

The euro rose as high as 112.47 yen on EBS, approaching its 16-month high of 112.59 yen hit on December 19.

The weaker yen has bolstered hopes for better earnings from Japanese companies and underpinned the Nikkei, which has gained some 17 percent since mid-November when the election was scheduled, fuelling expectations for Abe's party to win. The yen has lost nearly 8 percent against the dollar in the same period.

The Nikkei <.n225> was up 0.4 percent, holding above the key 10,000 mark. <.t/>

"Most foreign funds have added Japanese shares and there are fewer participants today, but there still is a reason for the Nikkei to rise," said Hideyuki Okoshi, general manager at Chibagin Securities. "Not only exporters but investors are buying other stocks which could benefit under the new government."

Japanese government debt prices fell, with the 10-year bond futures falling to a three-month low of 143.65 in active trade. The 10-year JGB yield rose 1.5 basis points to 0.780 percent, matching a six-week high hit on December 19.

"We continue to see equities going high, so the pressure is on the long end of the JGB curve. For the short end of the curve, we continue to see the BOJ ease aggressively, so there is no change in that," said Tadashi Matsukawa, head of Japan fixed income at PineBridge Investments.

Minutes of the BOJ's policy-setting meeting in November showed on Wednesday that some board members said the central bank must act decisively, without ruling out any policy options, if the outlook for the economy and prices worsens further.

The dollar was also expected to stay firm this week as investors repatriate dollars, and as the U.S. fiscal impasse is likely to continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

President Barack Obama may return to Washington from his Hawaiian holiday as early as Wednesday evening to address the unfinished "fiscal cliff" negotiations with Congress, an administration official said on Tuesday.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan at the end of last week, raising fears that the United States may face the fiscal cliff of some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start on January 1.

"The main index is rebounding after treading water on Monday and dropping on Friday, as investors eye the progress of U.S. fiscal negotiations," Kim Soo-young, an analyst at KB Securities, said of South Korean shares <.ks11> which turned 0.7 percent higher in low holiday volume.

Activity is likely to remain subdued, with volume low and without major economic news.

Later in the session, Thailand will release trade data, which is expected to show exports in November posting very high annual growth compared with low levels last year that reflected the damage from the flooding.

South Korea's key consumer sentiment index held steady in December from November and stood below the neutral point for a fifth consecutive month, the central bank said on Wednesday, diminishing hopes of a quick economic rebound.

Gold edged lower on Wednesday on uncertainty over whether the fiscal cliff, but a weaker yen sparked a rally in bullion futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa and Dominic Lau in Tokyo and Joyce Lee in Seoul; Editing by Daniel Magnowski and Chris Gallagher)

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